Initial Brief
One-liner
A secondary-research white paper asking where economic value lands across the agentic AI stack over the next 2–5 years, with a 5–10 year visionary horizon, aimed at capital-rich but conceptually-light operators (founders, VCs, CEOs).
Stance
This brief was written from a kickoff conversation that proposed three working frames: an L0–L7 ladder, a U-curve of value, and a set of under-priced orthogonal axes. Treat them as hypotheses, not conclusions. The research may reshape, merge, or retire any of them. The paper is an inquiry, not a defense.
Working title
Where Value Lands in the Age of Agentic AI An open inquiry into power, margin, and mobility across the AI stack.
Provisional. Revisit after the first scenario draft.
Map of this plan
- 01_audience — who reads it, what they should be able to do after.
- 02_purpose-and-justification — why this paper exists, why secondary research is the right vehicle.
- 03_structure — proposed ~20-page structure, theoretical and practical halves.
- 04_distribution — channels, derivatives, timing.
- 05_open-questions — decisions still to make.
- 06_collaboration — how others contribute to the wiki while it’s in flight.
Working hypotheses (starting scaffolding)
The kickoff produced three working hypotheses. Each lives in its own note with status, confidence, and “what would retire it” explicit.
- H1_L0-L7-ladder — a layered map of the agentic AI stack.
- H2_u-curve-of-value — value concentrates at the extremes of that map.
- H3_orthogonal-axes-under-priced — the most defensible plays sit off-axis.
These are entry points to the research, not the conclusion. If the evidence kills them, the paper says so — that itself is a contribution.
Geographic frame
International, English. Differentiated treatment of US / China / Europe, especially around energy, regulation, and capital. Europe section written from an honest European perspective — constraints acknowledged, edges named.
Time horizon
- 2–5 years: pragmatic, actionable, the operating window.
- 5–10 years: visionary, signposted as speculative.